World Candidates heating up

Phwoar! Things have really heated up in the World Candidates tournament in chilly London. Magnus Carlsen has taken sole lead with plus-four (7.5 out of 11), with Kramnik in clear second on plus-three and Aronian a further half-point back.

I have to say, my suggestion of  ‘risky chess’ as the optimal strategy for this sort of event has not entirely been proved correct.  We’ve seen Aronian employing this over the past couple of rounds, but unfortunate blunders borne from speculative flourishes in equal positions against both Gelfand and Svidler have backfired. This has left him now firmly on the back foot in the race for the title, with only a miracle offering him a chance of finishing first.  Meanwhile, both Carlsen and Kramnik have been playing their usual grinds, stoically defending when worse and always pushing and prodding when nursing a slight edge.

It’s paid dividends, to be sure, but I don’t think that’s the whole story behind their success. Two of the key elements behind their performances, I feel, are blunder minimisation and optimising practical chances. These guys quite simply don’t play the really bad moves that have been seen in so many of the other games, and they always keep both the clock and the tournament situation in mind in order to pose their opponents as many problems over the board as possible. Kramnik in particular has played exceedingly well this tournament and thoroughly deserves his position in second place, though it’s definitely going to be a mammoth task to overtake Magnus at this stage.

I’ve maintained since the start of the tournament that plus-five or plus-six would be needed to win, though most of my colleagues disagreed. Carlsen’s next got white against the second-last placed Ivanchuk, and in the penultimate round has black against Radjabov, currently languishing at the bottom of the table. He then finishes off with the white pieces against Peter Svidler in the last round. Carlsen certainly won’t score below 50% from these three games, but I think it’s a safe bet to say that plus-one or plus-two are more likely outcomes, giving him the aforementioned final scores.

So that means Kramnik needs at least plus-two from the last three rounds, in my opinion, to have a fighting chance at the world championship spot. The critical game is next: Black against world number two Levon Aronian. Kramnik said in the press conference that the main thing is “just not to lose”, but I’m sure after Aronian’s tragic loss today, Big Vlad will be looking to press home every psychological advantage and look for an opportunity to gain a crucial victory with the black pieces. After that he’s got a tough white game against Gelfand, who’s looked sharp in the second half of the tournament, and then black against the mercurial Ivanchuk to finish. I’m not sure where the wins are likely to come from, but it’s definitely clear that plus-two is a long shot against this field.

Meanwhile, Aronian himself mentioned in the press conference that his chances were far from over. This is theoretically true, but it absolutely requires him to win tomorrow (and, in the process, knock down one of his chief competitors). He has excellent chances to win with white against Radjabov in the last round, and if he manages such a spectacular run home and Magnus stumbles, a tie for first between the two would actually (I believe) gift the title to Lev on tie-break. So there’s a small chance the Armenian (and honorary Australian) could still claim the title – and what a Hollywoodesque finale that would be.

One way or the other, any scenario that would see someone other than the Norwegian world number one winning the tournament hinges on a big result tomorrow. Fortunately for me, I’ve been drafted into the Internet Chess Club commentary team tomorrow to present the games, so I’ll be right in the thick of it to observe the action unfold. You can listen in tomorrow at www.chess.fm from 2pm GMT, and watch the games at the same time at the official site. (Or, you know, enjoy a chess-free Easter Friday. Also possible.)